Atlas of Systems ← Atlas
MMXXVI
twenty-eight · active · june MMXXVI

Conflict Atlas

Twenty-eight active conflicts, tiered by what they cost rather than by how much attention they get.

7 major · 11 significant · 10 active
Conflict Atlas — a look inside, on desktop and phone
on desktop and phone
The premise

Counted, not summarised

Conflict coverage collapses into whichever war is currently legible to a newsroom. Cameroon has been at war since 2016 with near-zero Western coverage. Myanmar has been at war since 1948. A list does not fix that — it does make the omission visible, which is the smallest useful thing a list can do.

7Major war
11Significant
10Active
28Tracked
On the method

What a ceasefire means here

Several entries below are marked as ceasefires and are still killing people. Gaza has a signed ceasefire and hundreds of deaths since. Iran signed an MOU on Jun 17; a cargo ship was struck on Jun 26. The agreement and the ground are different objects, and the badges say which one is being described.

U.S. / Israel – Iran War

major war · Middle East · fragile ceasefire

Operation Epic Fury, Feb 28 2026. Khamenei killed in strikes; Iran retaliated against US bases in the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain. Hormuz mined and blocked. An MOU was signed Jun 17 — then an IRGC drone struck a Singapore cargo ship on Jun 26. 1,348+ confirmed killed.

Russia – Ukraine War

major war · Europe · active · year five

The most lethal active war on earth — 80,205 deaths in 2025 alone. Year five is dominated by long-range drone warfare and strikes on energy infrastructure. Roughly 350,000 Russian and 140,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed. No ceasefire.

Sudan Civil War — SAF vs RSF

major war · Africa · active · year three

The UN calls this the world's worst humanitarian crisis. ~150,000 civilians killed, 12 million displaced, 33.7 million in need of aid. The UAE backs the RSF; Egypt backs the SAF. Gold mining finances both sides.

Myanmar Civil War

major war · SE Asia · world's longest

Ongoing since 1948. The 2021 coup reignited it at full scale; 15,420+ killed between mid-2024 and mid-2025. China has thrown its weight decisively behind the junta, which has regained the upper hand after a rebel-ascendant 2024.

DR Congo — M23 / Rwanda

major war · Central Africa · active

Rwanda-backed M23 rebels captured Goma. Rwanda has effectively annexed North and South Kivu through proxies. A ceasefire was brokered in June 2025; fighting continues on the ground regardless. Coltan extraction funds it.

Sahel Insurgency

major war · West Africa · expanding

21,185 deaths in 2025. After coups expelled Western forces from Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, al-Qaeda and ISIS filled the vacuum within months. Russia's Africa Corps operates across the region. Spreading south toward the coast.

Israel – Lebanon / Hezbollah

major war · Middle East · active

Re-escalated Mar 2 2026 when the Khamenei assassination triggered Hezbollah rocket salvos and heavy Israeli airstrikes across Lebanon. Jun 21 was the first attack-free day since March.

Israel – Gaza / Hamas

significant · Middle East · fragile ceasefire

Began Oct 7 2023. Gaza's civilian infrastructure is largely destroyed after operations resumed in March 2025. A ceasefire was signed; hundreds have been killed since — the gap between an agreement and the ground. 2.3M+ displaced.

Yemen War — Houthis

significant · Middle East · active

Active since 2014. Iran-backed Houthis continued striking Israel and Red Sea shipping throughout the 2026 Iran war. The arsenal is partly degraded; they remain a significant regional actor.

Somalia — Al-Shabaab

significant · East Africa · active

Al-Shabaab, al-Qaeda's strongest affiliate, controls large areas of south-central Somalia and is expanding north. US AFRICOM ran 8+ airstrikes Jan–Mar 2026. Somalia tops the Fragile States Index.

India – Pakistan / Operation Sindoor

significant · South Asia · tense ceasefire

The worst India–Pakistan confrontation in decades. Pakistan declared open war Feb 27 2026; India's Operation Sindoor struck targets across the Line of Control. The ceasefire holds but is fragile — both states are nuclear-armed.

Afghanistan – Pakistan Border War

significant · South Asia · active

Pakistan bombed Kabul in retaliation for TTP cross-border attacks; the Taliban government refuses to expel TTP fighters. Ongoing missile and drone strikes across the Durand Line, with Kashmir running simultaneously.

Nigeria — Multiple Insurgencies

significant · West Africa · active

Four conflicts at once: Boko Haram and ISWAP in the northeast, bandit mass-abductions in the northwest, Fulani–farmer clashes in the Middle Belt, IPOB separatism in the southeast. Still in the ACLED global top ten.

Haiti — Gang War

significant · Caribbean · active

4,500+ killed by political violence in 2025, nearly double 2024. Gangs control most of Port-au-Prince. ACLED ranking jumped from 11th to 8th globally.

Syria / Iraq — ISIS Resurgence

significant · Middle East · escalating

Syria's new leader Ahmed al-Sharaa faces rising sectarian violence and an ISIS resurgence. ISIS is actively exploiting the regional distraction of the Iran war to rebuild capacity and territory.

Iran — Internal Instability

significant · Middle East · unstable

Late 2025: nationwide protests met with lethal force, 6,000+ killed by the government. Feb 2026: Khamenei killed, his son installed as successor. Nuclear and missile infrastructure destroyed. Regime legitimacy severely damaged.

Mexico — Cartel War

significant · North America · active

8,616 estimated deaths across 2024–25. The Sinaloa Cartel split triggered intensified inter-cartel warfare, fought with military-grade US weapons. Washington has threatened direct strikes inside Mexico.

Cameroon — Ambazonia War

significant · Central Africa · active · ignored

Anglophone separatists have fought for an independent Ambazonia since 2016. HRW documents extrajudicial killings, village burnings and arbitrary detention. Schools shut for years. Near-zero Western coverage.

Ethiopia – Eritrea

active · Horn of Africa · pre-war tension

Ethiopia wants Red Sea access as Africa's most populous landlocked nation; Eritrea fears invasion. A war between them would destabilise the entire Horn, and a distracted international community is largely ignoring it.

South Sudan

active · East Africa · volatile

Election delays risk renewed conflict between ethnic factions and political militias. Massive spillover pressure from Sudan's civil war, and some of the worst food insecurity metrics in the world.

Mozambique — Cabo Delgado

active · Southern Africa · intensifying

An ISIS-linked insurgency intensifying through 2026, adjacent to major offshore gas projects. Rwandan and SADC troops are deployed; the insurgency persists.

Libya — Managed Fragmentation

active · North Africa · frozen

Turkey backs the western government; Russia, Egypt and the UAE back Haftar in the east. Africa's largest oil reserves keep both sides at the table without resolution.

West Bank — Israeli Operations

active · Middle East · active

Escalating IDF operations, especially in Jenin, driven by settlement expansion, political repression and armed clashes. A worsening humanitarian crisis.

South China Sea

active · East Asia · escalating

China blocked Scarborough Shoal at the peak of the Iran war. Water-cannon and ship-ramming manoeuvres against Philippine vessels continue. The US–Philippines treaty makes this one of the most dangerous escalation risks on earth.

Bangladesh

active · South Asia · growing

Political and religious violence growing after the ouster of PM Sheikh Hasina in 2024. Elections postponed, governance crisis deepening, Islamist factions gaining in the vacuum.

Ecuador — Gang War

active · South America · active

50+ armed groups including ~40 gangs. ACLED rank 6 globally. Over 1,000 more killed than in 2024. Repeated states of emergency and ongoing prison massacres.

Brazil — Gang Violence

active · South America · active

Consistently top-ten on the ACLED Conflict Index. PCC and CV factions, alongside former-police militias, operate with near-impunity. Per-capita violence rivals active war zones.

Strait of Hormuz Crisis

active · Persian Gulf · contested

Iran closed the Strait on Mar 4 — 20% of global oil and LNG passes through it. Crude tanker traffic dropped 95% at peak. 11,000+ seafarers stranded. Reopened Jun 17; the central channel is still mined.